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Born a Gamblin' Man: Fantasy Football

Sports and Recreation | Tue, 08/11/2009 - 4:02 pm | Read 547 | Commented 0 | Emailed 0

By Greg Feeney

The dreary days of summer gambling are nearing an end. We have suffered for months with the marathon that is baseball. But. with the arrival of September, we are about to kickoff the most important of all acceptable legal gambling, Fantasy Football. With this NFL season, like all others, there are some new subtle and publicized changes to franchises that will no doubt affect your team. I’m here to help you get everything sorted out so you can draft a winner.

Each year there are three main things that I like to look at when evaluating fantasy production. First off, how will the player’s team affect their point total? If you have a running back on a team that will be trailing in most games, they will most likely suffer a reduced role due to the inevitable catch-up pass attack? And vice versa, a passing attack will be grounded on teams accustomed to having large leads. Secondly, how have off-season roster changes altered a particular player’s fantasy situation? Does a speedy receiver have a new golden armed quarterback? Or will the loss of a pro bowl offensive lineman vastly diminish the abilities of a stud back? Third: How much of his teams’ workload will a player get. Players like Steve Slaton and Maurice Jones-Drew should have a substantial increase in production this season, based solely on their franchise’s lack of another option. Quite simply, they will get more goal line touches and rack up more yards due to the increase in number of carries. Taking these factors into account each one of you should now be able to more accurately translate a player’s 2008 stats into a well calculated 2009 prediction.

In the spirit of making some predictions, here are my top five sleeper picks for this season: 1. Steve Smith, NYG. With the departure of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, Eli Manning’s 20+ touchdowns will have to go somewhere. Why not to Smith? 2. Pierre Thomas. The Saints passing attack has gotten much of the attention of the fantasy bloggers, and deservedly so, but with the release of Deuce McAllister, the door is wide open for Thomas to steal those fantasy points in a well-above-average ground game. 3. Anthony Gonzalez. Marvin Harrison is gone from Indianapolis, and with Reggie Wayne getting the main attention of the secondary, Gonzalez will be one of the benefactors. 4. Julius Jones/T.J. Duckett. The Seahawks will be rushing with a zone blocking scheme for the first time. Don’t expect this duo to be as productive as Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but their stats should exceed expectations. A great steal to those who take them in later rounds. 5. Matt Ryan. Last year the rookie controlled a very powerful ground game, getting a few touchdowns here and there. Now with Tony Gonzalez starting at Tight End and Roddy White freshly signed to a fatty deal, the air attack is going to thrive. All three players will put up monster numbers this season.

There are also a number of players that we can expect far less from in 2009. Players like Thomas Jones and Knowshon Moreno will feel the pain of the absence of superstar quarterbacks, and suffer the effects of eight men in the box. Matt Cassell as well should be in for an awful year. He will no longer be able to target the best receiving duo in the league of Moss and Welker. And if that wasn’t enough, the aging Larry Johnson will give him nearly no protection from blitzes and drop coverage. You should avoid these players at all costs.

Now that I have given you all my insight, I will be giving you all the opportunity to use it against me. The Vancouver Voice is sponsoring an ESPN fantasy football league this year. Standings will be tracked in The Voice through the season (space permitting) Anyone interested in participating should log onto VanVoice.com and e-mail me to request an invite. Good Luck to all, let’s show the online world that Vancouver knows how to get it done.

Greg Feeney is an avid gamer and sports fan who lives in the Shumway Neighborhood.

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